May 4 - Convective Forecast Discussion

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over parts of southern Alberta on Friday.

Westerly surface flow as of Thursday evening is resulting in a dry air mass over southern Alberta, with dewpoints currently just creeping above the freezing mark as of 01Z in the southwest corner - at a slower rate of return than currently progged. Nonetheless, NWP reveals that a push of Pacific moisture is expected to increase low level moisture in a shallow layer, with surface dewpoints approaching the mid-single digits across much of the southern half of the province by tomorrow afternoon. Weak surface troughing will develop from the SE corner northwestwards toward the northern foothills, resulting in a confluent axis that will help focus moisture and lift along a relatively narrow zone.

A plume of moist, mid and upper level westerly flow results in morning cloud atop a standing wave over the southern foothills that overspreads the plains to the east until around midday, after which it begin…

August 13 CFD


July 27 CFD